The Top Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets
Football Betting Lines
01/30/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (The Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every year around this time I harp on how folks should not wager on a touchdown being the first score of the Super Bowl.
Even though Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson hooked up for a TD pass for the first points in last year's game, a field goal or safety has been the initial score in eight of the last 13 Super Bowls. That means gamblers wagering on a touchdown at almost 2-1 odds (-180) are putting their money on a side that has failed 62% of the time since 1999.
In fact, a field goal or safety has come through in three of this year's five playoff matchups involving New York and New England. Furthermore, Lawrence Tynes' 22-yard field goal early in the third quarter was the first score when these two teams met earlier this season, and his 32-yarder opened the scoring in Super Bowl XLII.
Given all that information, the first prop bet for this year's contest is a field goal or safety as the first score of the game at +150.
I also do not advise people to bet on heavily favored lines but there is one that cannot be avoided and that is taking "passing play" as the first 1st down of the game at -180. With the number of passing attempts expected to take place, especially early on, it's almost a given for this one to ring true.
The last eight Super Bowl MVP's have been either quarterbacks (five) or wide receivers (three) and the two quarterbacks in this game have already won the award with Tom Brady capturing it on two occasions. Only Joe Montana has won it three times.
Brady, as expected, is the favorite at 13-10 odds. Eli Manning is second at 9-4. Although receivers have gained MVP honors 38% of the time since 2004, look for either Brady or Manning to walk off with the trophy, particularly since two of New England's top three pass-catchers are tight ends and it will also be difficult to separate Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz since both have come through in the clutch multiple times this year. (If I had to choose one receiver to snag the award it would be Nicks at 14-1.)
The play here is Manning at the generous odds of 9-4. Remember, he has beaten the Pats two of the last three meetings, and he was awarded the trophy in Super Bowl XLII despite a 56% completion percentage and only 255 yards passing.
Manning has raised his game to another level this year so expect him to outperform those numbers this time around. In addition, New England's current pass defense is a thousand times worse than it was back in 2007. The Patriots finished sixth in the entire NFL that year allowing just 190 yards per game. This season they ranked 31st giving up 294 passing yards per game.
Even though I feel Manning will have a huge game, his posted passing yard total of 310.5 is way too high. For those who believe all the Giants will do on offense is throw the ball, think again. New England's run defense allowed the opposition 4.6 yards per carry this season, good for 14th in the AFC. In order for New York to maintain possession and keep Brady and company off the field, its ground attack must be effective.
In Manning's last three appearances against the Pats, he threw for an average of 250 yards per game, with 255 being the highest total. That number should improve in the Super Bowl but to jump from 250 (or 255) all the way to 311 is asking a lot.
Take under 310.5 at even money.
TOM BRADY AND THE PATRIOTS
Staying with the quarterbacks, another posted number that caught my eye concerns Tom Brady. His total passing attempts is listed at 39.5, with the over and under both at -115.
Brady has thrown 49, 48, and 42 passes the last three matchups against the Giants so it seems as if 39.5 is a tad low, especially when the over and under are equally priced at -115.
Go with over 39.5 at -115 since New York's pass defense is not that effective. The Giants finished 29th in the NFL against the pass allowing 255 yards per game. They also were 12th in the NFC in attempts allowed per game.
Sticking with all the above information, take Brady to have more attempts and completions than Manning. Surprisingly, the odds are not extremely high in either category at (-1/2) -125 and (-1) -115, respectively.
Another solid play concerns wide receiver Wes Welker. The Oklahoma native has had six receptions in each of the last three games. However, he had nine when facing New York earlier this year and 11 in Super Bowl XLII. The odds are a little steep for my liking but Welker should have a big game.
Take over 6.5 receptions at -140.
TV VIEWERSHIP
Last year's Super Bowl became the most watched telecast in television history with over 111 million viewers. The posted total for this year's game is 117 million viewers with the over at -140 and the under at even money.
Go with the under since the overall viewer total has gone up over six million from one year to the next just one time since 1997.
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Pro Football Odds : NFC SOUTH BETTING ODDS
NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.
The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
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