Traditional national powers collide in Tuscaloosa
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 - Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the premier matchups on the 2010 college football docket takes place in Tuscaloosa this weekend, as the top- ranked and defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide square off against the 18th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions.
Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions made light work of FCS foe Youngstown State in the season-opener last weekend in Happy Valley, disposing of the Penguins in a 44-14 rout. Paterno, who is all-time winningest coach in FBS history, is closing in on 400 career victories, as his record stands now at 395-129-3, in this his 45th year at the helm at PSU.
Nick Saban's resume isn't quite as long as Paterno's but is still impressive nonetheless, at 120-50-1. Saban has two national titles under his belt, including leading the Crimson Tide to a perfect season and national championship in 2009. The Tide opened the year without the services of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, but that did little to stop Alabama in a 48-3 whipping of San Jose State.
These two powerhouses are meeting for the first time in 20 years. Alabama leads 8-5 overall, but the Nittany Lions won the last meeting, a 9-0 shutout in Tuscaloosa in 1990.
It was certainly a day to remember for Penn State fans, as freshman QB Rob Bolden delivered a record-setting performance against the Penguins, completing 20-of-29 passes, for 239 yards and two TDs. It was the best passing day for a Nittany Lion true freshman starter in school history. Bolden was also the first true freshman to begin a season under center for PSU since 1992 (Wally Richardson). Senior WR Brett Brackett was clearly Bolden's go-to-guy in the opener, as the 6-3 senior hauled in eight balls, for 98 yards and both scores. The passing attack certainly took top billing, as All-American candidate Evan Royster, managed a mere 40 yards rushing on 11 carries. Usually a potent rushing team, Penn State amassed just 132 yards against YSU. That number would be a welcome sight this week against a stout Alabama defense.
The Penn State defense must replace several standouts from last year's squad, but looked strong in the season-opener just the same, showing equal disdain for the run (75 yards) and the pass (189 yards). Senior linebacker Chris Colasanti led the defense with 13 tackles in the game. Fellow senior LB Bani Gbadyu was a distant second with eight stops. A veteran-laden LB corps is completed with senior Nate Stupar, who finished with just three tackles, but that included the lone sack in the game for Penn State.
Paterno is clearly impressed with what Alabama brings to field each and every week.
They've got great speed, got wonderful skill people and they have a quarterback (Greg McElroy), I don't know if he's ever lost a college game. They play with enthusiasm. I know they are breaking in a new kicker but other than that they are fairly experienced. I know they've lost some people but they've got some people who've played. May not have been starters and they're extremely well coached. Nick's done a heck of a job with them. They come at you all day. They have talent, they're well coached and they love to play and I think that combination's tough."
Alabama's Heisman winner was not in uniform against San Jose State, but that didn't stop the Crimson Tide from moving the football at will against the Spartans. In fact, the team churned out a whopping 591 total yards, amassing 30 first downs and posting 48 points. The ground game without Ingram, still found its way to 257 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Redshirt freshman Eddie Lacy got a chance to shine and made the most of it, taking 13 carries for 111 yards and two TDs. Sophomore Trent Richardson also scored twice and averaged 6.6 yards on his 10 carries. Junior Demetrius Goode (6.0 ypc) got in the act as well. Ingram is listed as questionable this week (knee), but the backfield is obviously full of talented runners that can assuage the loss if necessary and Richardson in particular is someone Saban knows he can count on.
"Trent has always been one of the guys that is on the leadership counsel around here. It really doesn't have anything to do with being a starter. I think he is that kind of person. He has a lot of competitive character. He makes a lot of good choices and decisions about what he does. He sets a good example for other people. He's caring, he will engage and inspire with his example. He has always been a leader on our team, especially this year, regardless of whether he starts or not."
The ground game wasn't the only area that Alabama found success at last week, as QB Greg McElroy led a passing attack that went for 334 yards. McElroy completed 13-of-16 passes, for 218 yards, giving way to A.J. McCarron (9- of-14, 116 yards) when the game got out of hand. Standout WRs Julio Jones (six receptions, 93 yards, one TD) and Marquis Maze (three receptions, 68 yards, one TD) were heard from as well.
Alabama's defense was without one of its leaders as well, as end Marcell Dareus sat out the opener due to suspension. He will also miss this contest, but is eligible to return on the 18th against Duke. His absence was not costly against SJSU, as the Tide picked up right where they left off last season, with dominant play on the defensive side of the ball. The Spartans managed a mere three points and failed to do much on the ground (89 yards) or through the air (86 yards). Freshman LB C.J. Mosely led all defenders with seven stops in the opener. He also had a team-high three PBUs. Fellow LB Chris Jordan was a close second with six stops, followed by CB DeQuan Menzie's five tackles.
At full strength, this defense will once again be nasty, as players like Dareus, LB Dont'a Hightower and strong safety Mark Barron all have All- American potential.
Saban understands the task at hand with Penn State.
"This is going to be a great matchup of two really prestigious programs. One thing when you play Joe Paterno-coached teams, which we've had some experience doing, they do a great job of executing, they don't give you much, they really kind of win on effort, toughness, execution and discipline. I don't think this team is any different. They were very impressive last week in beating Youngstown State. They have established systems on offense, defense and special teams that their players really understand and do a good job of executing."
Still, sending a freshman QB into the pressure-cooker that is Tuscaloosa is a gutsy call, one that Joe Pa isn't about to second-guess, despite the unknown.
"If I knew the answer...well, we're going to do it. I don't know how we're going to handle it. I hope we go down there and we realize it's one of those opportunities. You only get so many in a college career. Most of these kids will not be pro players. They'll go down and enjoy it, understand you're playing against one of the best college teams we've ever played against. But just go out and do what you can do. Do it as well as you can do and try to learn, and I think we will learn from it.I think the point you start with is the fact that it's going to be a big hostile crowd. Again, that's part of it. That's why you come to places like Penn State because you have opportunities to play in games like this. That doesn't mean a miracle's going to happen. We come home and we'll be better having played the game and we'll go on from there."
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STARKVILLE, Miss. (AP) -In one of the ugliest games in recent college football history, Auburn and Mississippi State punted, fumbled and stumbled their way to a 3-2 finish in 2008 that made both schools cringe.Auburn won - on the scoreboard.But real
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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