Vikings-Saints: Great way to get going
Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 -
Maybe this time Brett Favre won't get picked off with victory in his grasp.
In as juicy a season opener as the NFL could provide, Favre marches the Minnesota Vikings into New Orleans on Thursday night for a reprise of January's NFC championship game.
The Saints and their long trod-upon fans get the opportunity to celebrate the franchise's first Super Bowl title, then the New Orleans defense tries to batter Favre the way it did in the 31-28 overtime win that sent the former Aints to the Super Bowl.
Favre sort of retired in the offseason before having left ankle surgery in May, then balked again about returning to Minnesota when the recovery was slower than he wanted.
But retirements never really last with the 40-year-old quarterback, and he's back behind center, making the Vikings one of the conference favorites.
The Saints are 4 1/2-point choices in this one. It should be a lights-out shootout if Favre still has the touch and Minnesota can protect him. The Saints don't have any such questions about their offense, led by Drew Brees throwing to a deep assortment of wide receivers, tight ends and running backs.
This could be the most emotional game in the Louisiana Superdome since the Saints returned a year after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. Yes, even more emotional than the game Favre gave away 7 1/2 months ago.
The result?
SAINTS 35-28
Miami (minus 2) at BuffaloBeware the road favorite early in the season? Not in this matchup, where Miami going to Orchard Park late in the season would be an equalizer, but not in September.
BEST BET: Dolphins 21, Bills 10
Baltimore (plus 3) at New York Jets (Monday night)The Jets talk about Super Bowls. The Ravens play like a team headed to a Super Bowl.
UPSET SPECIAL: RAVENS, 17-13
Dallas (minus 3) at WashingtonIs Donovan McNabb still haunted by visions of the Dallas defense after moving from Philly to DC? His last two games with the Eagles were lopsided losses to the Cowboys. This should be closer.
COWBOYS, 20-16
Cincinnati (plus 6) at New EnglandFans of playmaking wideouts have to love a matchup of T.O. and Ochocinco against Randy Moss and a stunningly fit Wes Welker coming off major knee surgery.
PATRIOTS, 31-28
Indianapolis (minus 3) at HoustonConcerns about the offensive line and the defense as a whole in Indy are offset by the Colts' dominance of this rivalry. Peyton Manning heads for a fifth MVP trophy.
COLTS 30-20
Green Bay (pick) at PhiladelphiaAre these teams headed in opposite directions? Green Bay has a chance to be special this year, while the Eagles are in something of a transition.
PACKERS 21-14
Atlanta (pick) at PittsburghFirst match of the critical four-game stretch for the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger. Can the Steelers at least go 2-2 in that span? Tough way to start.
FALCONS, 14-10
San Francisco (minus 1) at SeattleUnder normal circumstances, Pete Carroll gets his players all fired up. In his return as an NFL head coach, the Seahawks could take off over Puget Sound by themselves.
SEAHAWKS, 21-20
San Diego (minus 5 1/2) at Kansas City (Monday night)Chargers could be vulnerable - in another division. But this won't be a rout.
CHARGERS 22-17
Carolina (plus 7) at New York GiantsPanthers tend to play very well in Meadowlands against Giants, but Big Blue is officially opening Big Gray - the New Meadowlands Stadium (until a sponsor claims naming rights to the $1.6 billion venue).
GIANTS, 17-16
Detroit (plus 7) at ChicagoSo tempting to go with Lions here against a troubled Bears squad. Detroit's last road win was in October 2007 - at Soldier Field.
LIONS, 20-7
Cleveland (plus 1) at Tampa BayNot so tempting with the Browns in matchup of coaches on the hot seat.
BUCCANEERS, 10-6
Denver (plus 1 1/2) at JacksonvilleHow much action does Tim Tebow get in his hometown in his NFL debut? Not enough to make a difference.
JAGUARS, 13-10
Oakland (plus 7) at TennesseeTitans believe they are ready to make noise again after a streaky 2009. Better start with a W here.
TITANS, 23-17
Arizona (minus 3 1/2) at St. LouisCardinals suddenly seem like Team Turmoil. They're still far too good for Rams.
CARDINALS, 20-3Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.